Premier League Top Four Predictions: Mid-Season Verdict

The Premier League has now moved just beyond the halfway mark, with all teams having played just over half of their fixtures. This stage of the season provides the perfect opportunity to reassess expectations and take stock of who we believe will finish inside the top four, securing Champions League football for next season.

The Premier League is widely regarded as the strongest league in world football from top to bottom, and that depth of quality is exactly what makes it so unpredictable year after year.

Like many others, I am of the understanding that the general base level of all teams has improved significantly, meaning every fixture presents a genuine challenge and the margins required to pick up three points continue to narrow.

Arsène Wenger famously claimed in 2012 that “finishing in the top four is now like winning a trophy.” The statement was ridiculed at the time by rival fans. However, looking at the continued financial expansion of the league and the competitiveness we now see today, it’s clear Wenger was ahead of his time. His words have aged extremely well.

That assertion leads us perfectly into today’s discussion: who is best placed to finish in the Premier League’s coveted top four now that over half of the season has been played?

4th Place: Liverpool

Fourth place may be the most difficult position to predict this season. The gap between third-placed Aston Villa and fourth-placed Liverpool currently stands at eight points, yet the difference between fourth and tenth is only six.

That alone highlights how competitive the race for Champions League qualification has become.

Liverpool, Brentford, Newcastle, Manchester United and Chelsea all find themselves firmly in the mix, but we are backing the reigning champions to claim fourth spot. That may seem conservative given Liverpool’s struggles at times this season, but experience counts for a great deal during the business end of a Premier League campaign.

Liverpool’s title defence has been anything but straightforward. After winning the league without making major additions, the club took a far more aggressive approach in the transfer market.

The arrivals of Alexander Isak, Hugo Ekitike and Florian Wirtz were clear statements of intent. However, such significant change inevitably brings disruption, and barring the Frenchman, none of Liverpool’s big-money signings have truly hit the ground running.

That disruption was compounded by the departures of key figures such as Luis Díaz, Trent Alexander-Arnold and Darwin Núñez.

The result has been inconsistency, particularly during October and November, where performances and results failed to align. December offered signs of improvement, but January has once again exposed fragilities, with Liverpool drawing all three of their league fixtures so far in the new year.

Realistically, a top-four finish is the most sensible target this season. With managerial uncertainty at Chelsea and Manchester United, Liverpool’s quality, experience and know-how from last season’s title-winning run should be enough to guide them through the run-in and secure Champions League football albeit narrowly.

3rd Place: Aston Villa

Aston Villa are the perfect example of how quickly fortunes can change in the Premier League. After a slow start that saw them collect just three points from their opening five matches, Villa have undergone a remarkable transformation.

From early November, Unai Emery’s side went on an extraordinary run, winning 11 consecutive matches in all competitions and surging into third place. Prior to their 4–1 defeat to Arsenal at the Emirates, there was even tentative discussion around a title challenge — not just because of league position, but due to how convincing they looked on the pitch.

Morgan Rogers has been central to that rise. His performances have earned him England selection under Thomas Tuchel ahead of established names such as Jude Bellingham and Phil Foden.

Based purely on form and impact, it is difficult to argue against that decision. Rogers has delivered in big moments, easing the burden on Ollie Watkins, who endured a slow start but has recently found form in front of goal.

Unai Emery’s influence cannot be overstated. His ability to set teams up against elite opposition has been evident for several seasons, often disrupting Arsenal and Manchester City in previous title races. This season, Villa themselves have emerged as a genuine force near the summit.

Villa’s midfield depth, combined with formidable home form, makes Villa Park one of the league’s toughest venues once again. With an eight-point cushion over Liverpool, we believe Aston Villa have created enough breathing room to maintain third place.

2nd Place: Manchester City

Manchester City have looked far more like their familiar selves this season after an uncharacteristically subdued campaign last year. The long-awaited emergence of Rayan Cherki has added creativity and flair, with the former Lyon prodigy impressing weekly under the Premier League spotlight.

Cherki’s seven assists in just 841 minutes underline his growing influence, while Erling Haaland’s goals have returned alongside noticeable improvements in his all-round play. The return of Rodri will also be crucial, restoring City’s control in midfield, while Tijjani Reijnders, Nico González and Phil Foden have begun to find rhythm.

Despite improvements, City have not yet reached their devastating peak.

Dropped points have exposed moments of vulnerability, and while January signing Antoine Semenyo and Marc Guéhi could prove decisive, we believe Arsenal’s consistency gives them the edge.

With a six-point gap to Arsenal and inconsistency still present, we predict City will finish as runners-up.

1st Place: Arsenal

Yes, Gunners we believe this is finally your year.

Since the 2003/04 Invincible’s, Arsenal have repeatedly fallen short, but everything about this campaign suggests a side ready to get over the line. Mikel Arteta has added depth, resilience and maturity that was previously lacking.

Now widely regarded as the best defensive unit in world football, Arsenal are deadly from set pieces while retaining elite individual quality. Even with key absences Gabriel, Riccardo Calafiori, Bukayo Saka and Martin Ødegaard Arsenal have continued collecting points, a clear sign of growth.

Crucially, Arsenal are no longer overly reliant on Saka alone. The additions of Noni Madueke, Eberechi Eze and Victor Gyökeres have transformed their attacking depth, while allowing Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus the time to recover properly.

Their emphatic 4–1 victory over Aston Villa felt symbolic a team overcoming past psychological barriers.

For these reasons, we predict Arsenal will finish top and finally be crowned Premier League champions.