West Ham v Arsenal Preview: Season-Defining London Derby
- Billy Stack
- 2 days ago
- 3 min read
West Ham need a win against the league leaders to move out of the relegation zone.
The visitors, meanwhile, know that victories in their final three league matches would guarantee the club its first league title since 2004.
Arsenal’s lead at the top of the Premier League may already have been cut to two points before kick-off, however, should Manchester City beat Brentford on Saturday.
Form Guide
West Ham’s 3-0 defeat to Brentford last Saturday was their first loss in three league matches.
The Hammers’ previous unbeaten run had lifted the club out of the bottom three, but they now find themselves back in the relegation zone following Tottenham Hotspur’s 2-1 victory away at Aston Villa.
Arsenal travel to the London Stadium off the back of consecutive home victories against Fulham in the Premier League and Atletico Madrid in the Champions League.
Mikel Arteta’s side kept clean sheets in both matches and are now unbeaten in four games since their 2-1 defeat away at Manchester City.
Their hosts have also won their last two home matches against Everton and Wolverhampton Wanderers, and are unbeaten in their last nine home games in all competitions outside of penalty shootouts.
Arsenal have struggled slightly away from home recently, with the Gunners winning just one of their last five away fixtures in all competitions a 1-0 victory against Sporting CP in the Champions League.
Head-to-Head
The league leaders’ recent record at the London Stadium is significantly stronger.
Arsenal have won both of their last two visits to West Ham by an aggregate score of 11-2 and are unbeaten in six league away matches against the Hammers since a 1-0 defeat in January 2019.
Sunday’s hosts did beat Arsenal 3-1 at home in the League Cup in November 2023 and also disrupted Arsenal’s title challenge with a 1-0 win at the Emirates in February 2025, courtesy of a first-half winner from captain Jarrod Bowen.
Arsenal did emerge victorious when these sides met earlier this season at the Emirates, however.
A goal from Declan Rice and a penalty from Bukayo Saka secured a 2-0 win for the league leaders.
Key Battle: West Ham’s Counter-Attacks
Since being appointed West Ham manager last September, Nuno Espirito Santo has focused on building a side that is difficult to break down, improving on the defensive weaknesses that defined Graham Potter’s short spell in charge.
This has led to West Ham adopting a counter-attacking style of football, often spending long periods without possession.
The Hammers have averaged 42.6% possession in the league this season, higher only than Burnley.
That strategy has proved effective, however, with Nuno’s side having lost all five Premier League matches this season in which they recorded over 50% possession.
While Arsenal have averaged 55.6% possession in the Premier League this season the fourth highest in the division they are also comfortable playing conservatively and relying heavily on set-pieces as a primary attacking threat.
That approach may again be necessary to avoid exposing their defence to West Ham’s counter-attacks, with Bowen often dragging defenders wide in order to create space centrally for Pablo.
Bowen will likely come up directly against one of Arsenal’s left-backs on Sunday, a position Arteta has rotated frequently in recent weeks.
Piero Hincapie has started two of Arsenal’s last three league matches at left-back, while Riccardo Calafiori featured there against Fulham and Atletico Madrid.
Myles Lewis-Skelly is also capable of operating at left-back or in midfield and may be best suited to handling Bowen’s pace and movement.
What It Means
After three consecutive runners-up finishes, Arsenal’s players will be desperate to finally finish the season as Premier League champions.
Manchester City’s 3-3 draw with Everton on Monday means the Gunners would secure the title by winning their final three games against West Ham, Burnley and Crystal Palace.
At the other end of the table, West Ham know they could end the weekend four points from safety if they lose and Tottenham defeat Leeds United on Monday evening.
The Hammers’ goal difference is also ten goals worse than their nearest relegation rivals, meaning they will most likely need to outperform Tottenham by at least two points across the final three matches to survive.
Prediction
West Ham’s revival since the turn of the year has been impressive, but the defeat to Brentford exposed their remaining weaknesses.
Arsenal arrive in strong form and possess the quality to disrupt West Ham’s preferred style of play.
West Ham 0-2 Arsenal
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